Downtown is a hurricane risk, but city has a plan
By Caitlin Eichelberger
A dome of water spun up from the sea and thrown onto land. A torrent of wind racing along the avenues. A flood rising around the bases of skyscrapers.
Such doom-and-gloom disasters are the substance of summer blockbusters. But following Hurricane Katrina and the much-criticized evacuation efforts in New Orleans, the reality of natural, and unnatural, disasters has jolted many to ask, What if? For New Yorkers, the question is not so far-fetched New York City is the third major U.S. city most vulnerable to a hurricane after New Orleans and Miami and the New York City Office of Emergency Management has an evacuation system in place.
In the case of a hurricane, related storm surges and flooding, evacuations depend upon an areas vulnerability to the approaching storm. Susceptible areas are divided into one of three zones. Zone A encompasses the most vulnerable locations and includes a good part of Lower Manhattan. Battery Park City, the Seaport, some of Tribeca and any other Downtown area within a few blocks of the water are in the highest risk area. These areas would be evacuated in the event of any hurricane near the city.
Most of the rest of Lower Manhattan is in Zone B or Zone C, which would be evacuated for more severe hurricanes.
The decision to evacuate would be made 36 to 40 hours prior to landfall, said Jarrod Bernstein, O.E.M. spokesperson. But before that, he said, people would be aware of the impending situation.
Even before we put out the order or request, we would be talking about it well before time, Bernstein said.
Evacuation recommendations and/or orders would be made primarily through mass-media outlets. In a less predictable hazard, like a terrorism attack, O.E.M. officials would potentially go door to door to alert residents if necessary.
Our plan calls for erring on the side of caution, wed rather do it and not need it, he said.
Evacuated residents are recommended to stay with family and friends outside of the evacuated zone or zones. If that is not an option, residents are directed to reception centers temporary holding zones for those needing to be transferred to a more permanent shelter.
Reception centers are available in all boroughs and can be reached via public transportation. For Lower Manhattan residents, the nearest reception center is at I.S. 131 at 100 Hester St. Though it is the only center in Lower Manhattan and a long walk from neighborhoods like Battery Park City, Bernstein reminds residents it is only a temporary placement until evacuees are moved to any one of multiple shelters. A reception center cannot be placed any closer to the coast without falling into a zone itself, Bernstein pointed out. His advice to Lower Manhattanites: heed warnings early.
An online program, EMOLS, pinpoints the nearest location for an individuals residence and can be accessed via O.E.M.s Web site, www.nyc.gov/html/oem/home.html
Thats what we are really trying to get people to do now, Bernstein said.
Each reception center is associated with several evacuation shelters in what is known as its solar system. There are 23 systems total, and each is capable of accommodating between 3,000 and 12,000 people. Each shelter, opened dependent on need, would be managed by the American Red Cross staff and other partners assisting with facilities, food services, security, communications, health services and staff support.
While much criticism has been aimed at the assumptions in New Orleans that individuals would have personal transportation available, O.E.M.s materials recommend public transportation and advise against driving. However, in the event of heavy rains and storm surges, subway stations too would become flooded. Bernstein said, though, that residents should be evacuated before the possibility of flooding.
The whole idea is not to be evacuating while it is raining, you want to get people out while it is 70 degrees and sunny outside, he said.
Scot Phelps, director of the Metropolitan College of New Yorks masters in public administration in emergency and disaster management program, said he does not believe New York City would fare as poorly as New Orleans in evacuating, because unlike New Orleaneans, New Yorkers are familiar with mass transit.
The bus system in New Orleans clearly not sufficient for their population, he said. Whereas we have millions on mass transit everyday, so its a much simpler concept.
In the unlikely event of a citywide evacuation, Phelps said the feasibility depends, of course, on time. If you have two days, you probably can; if you have two hours then you probably cant, he said, adding that people know their way out of the city. You have a million people evacuating Manhattan everyday at 5 oclock, he said.
Bernstein would not go as far as to say a citywide evacuation is impossible, but only that the types of hazards that would make you do something like that are very unlikely.
O.E.M. is sending a team to New Orleans to look at some lessons learned, Bernstein said.
Some things were done well, and obviously some things were done very poorly, he said.
O.E.M. plans to pay close attention to forthcoming written critiques. Despite the disaster in the Gulf, it has encouraged residents to inquire about their own safety and their own cities course of action. O.E.Ms Web site hits have multiplied, according to Bernstein, as well as 311 calls, since Katrina.
Pete Gleason, a Tribeca/Soho Community Emergency Response Team member and team organizer, said he is confident in the citys capability to respond to a disaster.
If they got it right in 92, Im sure theyre going to be able to get it right in 2005, he said, recalling the northeaster of 1992.
CERTs role in a natural disaster would be to assist in traffic control and to notify officials of the most vulnerable populations in the neighborhood, because they know their neighborhood best, Bernstein said.
But, Gleason said, Hopefully, if there is an evacuation, the CERT team wouldnt be needed because people would already be out.